2005

NEW DISTRIBUTION OF THE POWER

New distribution of the power is in many aspects defined by strategies for the next parliamentary elections to be held in a year. The parliament question becomes truly serious since the constitutional reform takes many authorities from the president and gives more power to parliament and prime minister. So strategies are: First, acting president Victor Yushchenko is not sure of getting majority. That is why he is interested in a strong leading party, in a bloc with prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who has the second best recognised political brand in Ukraine, and in good relations with Alexander Moroz and Volodymyr Lytvyn, whose parties are able to overcome the election threshold and to form a majority with his bloc. Second, all small Yushchenko's allies clearly understand how they need him for the elections, so all they will obey locality to the president. Third, neither Lytvyn, nor Moroz has any real intention to bloc with Yushchenko since they have own political niches and strategies. Current distribution of the power first of all provides Yushchenko with dominant position in Ukrainian politics and helps him keep balances in state economy agencies, power agencies (so-called "siloviki"), and executive agencies of direct influence to the executive power. The latter constitute a kind of triangle, with the largest (prime minister Tymoshenko), medium (secretary of the National Council of Security and Defence Poroshenko) and the smallest (secretary of the president Zinchenko) sides. All sides fight for more authorities (Poroshenko is more successful at the moment), besides two of the them (Poroshenko, Zinchenko) counterweight the largest one (Tymoshenko). With Yushchenko is on the top that creates a pyramid of real executive power. As for long-term strategy, Yushchenko plans to have control over the legislative branch of power via creation controlled parliamentary majority, over the executive branch of power thanks to parliamentary majority, which appoints government, and because of passing more authorities to the National Council of Security and Defence. This agency may also help to set more control over the judicial branch of the power. As a result, even after the constitutional reform implementation Yushchenko may still have as much power as before. There is one little thing he needs to have it in realty - just to win the next election in a year. That also supposes no serious systematic reforms in 2005.