2005

UKRAINE: CALM BEFORE STORM?

eforms in Ukraine are postponed because of contradictions inside the new power. The other important reason is role of parliament in discharging state officials (prosecutor office, courts, etc) that is why real reforming leap is possible only after the parliamentary elections of 2006. Contradictions among the parties of the power increase. No unity amid them is good rather for prime minister Tymoshenko bloc, and hardly beneficial for president Yushchenko's party. The latter will undertake more serious efforts to destroy unity of "bloc of four" (Tymoshenko plus three national democrat parties), while trying to bring national democrats back to "Our Ukraine". Results of this contradiction will be clear closer to the elections. Besides, presidential milieu will try to isolate parliamentary speaker Lytvyn's party and, quite possibly, to push it close to the opposition, while Lytvyn will not agree with that and start resisting. Whatsoever, Socialist Party will partake in the elections independently. Under all scenarios positions of prime minister Tymoshenko will remain strong. The closer the elections date, the harder conflicts of RNBO secretary Poroshenko with all informal foes and formal friends. The opposition forces have not found decision yet, which can provide their revenge for the lost presidential elections. Hence any further serious reforms are delayed till the new parliament is formed.