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2005

POLITICAL PATIENCE

The parliamentary elections campaign is started officially. There are two scenarios of future development of this campaign: static and dynamic. The second case will bring more votes for the orange parties and blocs (NSNU of Yushchenko and BYuT of Tymoshenko), while the first is more favourable for the current opposition, mostly Party of Regions. Besides, some dynamics may be added by more active campaigns of small parties (PSPU of Vitrenko, also Viche, Party of Greens , etc.) as well as bloc of Lytvyn (based on NPU) and party of Moroz (SPU).
In any - static or dynamic case - key results of the elections will be the same:

• No one party or bloc is able to form majority independently; most probably majority coalition will be formed by at least three participants (and most probably the third best will be Lytvyn, who is compatibly with everyone and who will apply for the speaker chair and be a majority moderator);
• The majority will most probably be not constitutional, but smallest possible, from 230-250 seats;
• No unity will be either in the majority, or in the opposition to it.

There are two most probable variants of the majority coalition:

• "Yushschenko-Yunukovich Pact", as continuation of their "Memorandum" practice, or
• "Orange Coalition" revived.

Destiny of both depends on how Yushchenko and Tymoshenko will be able to agree. The first variant means rather Kuchma-like conservation, the second leaves hope for some active reforming.