2006

YEAR OF LOST OPPORTUNITIES

Year 2005 became the year of lost opportunities for the new Ukrainian "orange" power, which did not managed to become the political force, representative for whole, or at least, for most of Ukraine. Moreover, disappointment of many former, of year 2004, supporters of the new power, in combination with active efforts of the new opposition, have created situation with balance of political powers similar to that in late 2004. Conditionally, there are two main political wings in Ukraine: the "orange-pink" (NSNU, BYUT, SPU as well as less successful Pora-PRP and "Kostenko & Plushch" alliance) and the "white-blue-red" (Party of Regions, CPU, Vitrenko's bloc, and much less successful bloc "NeTak" and, with some restrictions, "Viche" Party). This division is not traditionally accepted, since both wings have their own left and right, conservators and liberals. That rather depends on vision of future development of Ukraine. Between both sides there are small neutral forces, using "green" colour for distinction, and able easily to set up a coalition with any (firs of all, that is Lytvyn's bloc). Voters' attitudes became so stable, that political competition in Ukraine is not between two main wings of political forces, but inside them. Anyway both wings are able to get around 40% on the elections, what is not enough to create parliamentary majority and hence to appoint government. It is important, that for current elections financing does not play special role: all have enough. That is why other factors become more crucial for better results, such as well-known administrative resource, influence in mass media, and creativeness. However, current capacities for usage of those factors will not change final election results to much. The main equation of how to compound a coalition will remain. Amid three scenarios, the revenge of opposition, stable continuation of authorities of the new power, and the conformist case (between leading factions of the power and the opposition) the last one is still most probable. In any case, however, after the elections there will be at least two levels of conflict in the state machine: between the majority and the opposition in parliament and between the current opposition and governors at regional level (what can be added with parliament-like conflicts in local councils). The third and the highest conflict level, in the executive power, also can happen between president and new government and it depends on compromise this government will be. Such conflict background once more proves the last year was lost by the new power. Time of stability has gone