2006

LIFE AFTER THE ELECTIONS

The most influential factor for future changes in Ukrainian politics and economy is results of the elections, to be held in March 26. These results are intriguing since, according to current and previous opinion polls, no one political force (i.e. leading party or bloc plus its allies) cannot establish the parliamentary majority coalition without attraction either neutral forces, or its political opponents. No majority will be the constitutional one (over 300), able to overcome Presidential vetoes on laws approved by parliament. Type of the coalition will define response of the President Victor Yushchenko. In the stable variant, there will not be too many contradictions between the President and parliamentary majority, there will be rather stable continuation of the current political and economic course. Meanwhile the revenge case may create legal collusions, starting from Presidential refuse to approve government proposed by majority formed from today's opposition and continuing with permanent Presidential vetoes on laws approved by such a majority. The conformist case also means conflicts between the President and majority, perhaps not such intensive and also starting divorce of the President and now backed by him bloc NSNU, at least the opportunist part of this bloc. In any case there will be strong battles and tradeoffs for ministers' portfolios in government as well as for chairs of parliament speaker and vice speakers. Indeed, post of the speaker will become very convenient for politicians seeking more power, like current speaker V. Lytvyn, leader of BYUT bloc Yu. Tymoshenko or leader of the Socialist Party A. Moroz: that can provide them with real power (due to more power for parliament in whole) and almost no responsibility. Also, in any case there will be a lot of local conflicts: fist of all between local councils and governors. In many cases of conflicts and legal collusions, courts and prosecutor offices will play crucial role. As for economy development, overall political instability will decrease yet tiny chances for serious economy growth. Other factors of keeping growth rates remain low are increase of fuel prices (natural gas), no reasonable economic policy (no budget and tax reforms), no significant increase in investments, and some problems in foreign trade (both with Russia and the EU).