2006

NEW TIMES OF THE LARGE BUSINESS

Contrary to widespread opinion, the new power (in parliament and government) is not just about the large business - it is rather about just a part of it, in fact just a third of it. Moreover, around a half of the large business (or oligarchic business) is not represented in central power at all (including the opposition). Finally, there is some large business without even good representation in local councils. The current legislative and executive branches of the power (the Party of Regions and the Socialist Party) have enough gears to press any business. So the business not connected with those political forces has to implement the support tactics, which includes maintaining good relations not only with them, but also with the President and his offices as well as with the opposition. The President attract ISD, which is actually also large Donetsk oligarchic group, and some people with business experience to counterweight increasingly growing influence of large Donestk business, concentrated in the Party of Regions. Meantime large business behaves very actively, undertaking actions from hostile takeovers to expansion abroad. It is very important, that leaders of the large business, first of all R. Akhmetov of SCM, seek more transparency for business, understanding its importance for investments and trade. Future perspectives of large Ukrainian business include further risks of collaboration process of large groups represented in the parliamentary opposition. There is strong conflict potential inside the large Donetsk business, which gives more opportunities for all the other business. Other forecasts include: Concentration and capitalisation of the largest groups will grow; New re-distribution of assets of large business is possible, but it will not reach critical level (due to lack of the single centre of the power); Re-distribution of other assets is highly possible, from actions for taking assets from medium business to privatisation of state property; External expansion will continue more actively; The large business will try to provide policy of relative isolationism. As a result, in a year we get yet another kind of economic influence of main business groups. Those, which are represented in the power, will improve their political influence and financial positions and such improvements will be their main occupation for the next several years.