2006

FROM THE POLITICAL REFORM TO POLITICAL WARS: SCENARIOS FOR 2007

The roots of current political conflicts grow from 2004, when the constitutional reform was voted. This reform was approved however just as amendments, without related legal acts. Its incompleteness stimulates now different political forces to fight in political war for more state power. These forces can be conditionally divided into two sides, pro-presidential and coalitional ones. Both have enough authorities, so current situation in the state can be characterised as dual power regime. There are several ways to escape this dual power: First, both sides could find a compromise solution how to separate their authorities and then fix such a solution in a legal way, but now this scenario looks as almost impossible. Second, both sides could form a new parliamentary majority, what is in fact long-term extension of the previous scenario, but after taking complete control over the Our Ukraine by president and after gaining too many authorities in the state power by participants of the current coalitions, it is also hardly possible case. Third, the president could initiate new and earlier parliamentary elections. The re-elections are possible however not earlier spring ends, since current voters' attitudes are not beneficial enough for pro-presidential bloc. Fourth, rejecting of the constitutional reform, this is the most possible amid scenarios of escaping from the dual power situation. In this case, the president has to influence judges of the Constitutional Court, to agree with Yu. Tymoshenko, and to overcome resistance of the coalition. If this scenario is realised, there could be new parliamentary coalition (without new elections) and new government. Main risk for this case is increase of influence of new pro-presidential oligarchs and top bureaucrats. Whatsoever, further confrontation between pro-presidential and coalitional forces remains the most probable case and its main outcome will be more influence of the coalition thanks to tactics of small victories. The main risk is no economic reforming in 2007. Finally, both more probable cases of solution of dual power require time, so confrontation will last at least till mid 2007 (and whole 2007 under scenario of pure confrontation, the most probable one).