2007

FOUR VERY PROBABLE SCENARIOS

A kind of two-party system is forming now in Ukraine. It is not the US or UK style and it does not bring democratic pluralism however. One of a pair of key political forces, the Party of Regions, represents interests of large oligarchic business. The other, BYUT, tends to become that with brightly featured of authoritarian and even left-wing approaches. Both are in fact not interested in structural improvements and market-based democratic reforms. Given current political conditions, there are four basic scenarios of how the political life will evolve. First, it is re-elections. This idea is supported by BYUT leadership and the President. But being realised it will not bring break-through. Either everything in parliamentary structure will remain mostly unchanged, or BYUT will gain more. In latter case, that means more authoritarian approaches. Second, new coalition. The Party of Regions can stimulate BYUT to vote in ways they can agree, but formal coalition will hardly beneficial for BYUT where it can get unsatisfactory role of a younger partner. Third, cancellation of the constitutional reform. It faces strong opposing by the regionalists. Fourth, conservation of the existing situation. In fact this scenario will lead to political crisis at the end. It also suggests that the regionalist oligarchs, who have insufficient financial resources (comparing to their needs and desires) will try to set as much control over state property as they will be able. Giving some parts of this control to the socialists and other partners will strengthen coalitional and governmental links. In somewhat such a system is close to that which existed under president L. Kuchma. So it can be called as neo-kuchmism, but everyone knows what the euphemism’s end was.