2007

IT IS PRO-RUSSIAN COALITION, ISN’T?

Recent privatisation sale of Luganskteplovoz company to a Russian buyer, failure to appoint a nominee for the minister of foreign affairs position (because of accusations of being unfriendly to Russia) as well as many other events of less importance (like reviving the EEP project) allowed many to charge the parliamentary coalition and the based on it government as very pro-Russian. In realty, however, position of the parliamentary-governmental coalition is much more pragmatic. Understanding this fact will help to understand in future the coalition’s behaviour – which is based on a simple approach: “not to share anything valuable with someone else”. This rule has no exceptions – and for Russian partners of the coalition too. The coalition however must demonstrate its formally pro-Russian nature in order to win support of their voter and to have better relations with its Russian partners. This way of behaviour is fully formal. Contrary to widespread views, economic relations with Russia have only strengthened after the “orange revolution”. They have finally become stable and solid and now show positive dynamics. Besides, negative effects of trade wars and natural gas price increase are indeed overestimated and did not spoil Ukrainian-Russian economic links too much. Such links are often developed by businesspeople that are close to the president, not to the prime minister. Moreover, the president and his team are more active in establishing new effective partnership with the Russian side, making it more strategic and transparent (applying such approaches as “road map” and the presidential interstate commission). It seems that real target of the coalition in external economic policy is provision of free trade, setting up the really working free trade areas with the European Union and Russia, as well as joining the WTO. In other words, obtaining as much free trade as possible without serious political obligations. That is why the EEP project of closer economic union (in Russian view) has no perspectives with this coalition. However, the coalition is ready to make some small concessions either to pro-Russian voters or to its Russian partners, but without violation of its main rule of not to sharing serious assets. That is why the coalition, which may sell Luganskteplovboz, will not hand over, for instance, the Ukraine’s gas transportation system.