2007

THE POLITICAL SURPLACE

The president’s signing the decree of dismissing parliament and arranging the prescheduled elections can be evaluated by different estimates, but one thing is definite: it destructed previous straight line of political events. This decree also means that political situation in Ukraine finally transformed from deadlock to crisis. Any one side of this confrontation cannot wish a compromise without loss of its image, also because such a compromise suggests serous concessions. Meantime many state agencies have started taking support positions either for the president and his concept of the prescheduled elections, or for the parliamentary coalitions and preserving status quo. The overall situation has become unpredictable enough and can turn into sharp and long conflict, in somewhat (but on a small scale) repeating struggle of the last presidential elections of 2004. According to the pessimistic scenarios that can lead to more two-polar split of the country and even to formalisation of its ‘orange’ and ‘white-blue’ parts. At the same time, recently both sides have already shown their ability to find some compromise. Until now the position of the ruling collation and government looks stronger, taking into account questionable nature of the legal basis of the president’s decree. The coalition has enough administrative, powerful and, more important, quite legal tools to avoid and definitely to postpone the prescheduled parliamentary elections. Mostly the coalition’s steps are still directed towards blocking of the reelections. However, if the Party of Regions, where there are also some supporters of the elections idea, decides to take part in the elections this party will anyway win good chances to form its majority coalition in the new Verkhovna Rada. Threats of prime minister and the parliamentary speaker to arrange simultaneous elections for parliament and president is rather propagandist action and has no legal base. At the same time the president has advantage of that that started this political competition – and an advantage of his initiative helps him to be one step ahead. Finally, the reelections will not change the situation of the tactical unions of Big Three (political forces of Tymoshenko, Yushchenko and Yanukovich) – but the compromise reform of Constitution can do it.