2007

THE UKRAINIAN POLITICAL CARD-GAME

The electoral ratings of the leading political forces (the “big three” consisting of the Party of Regions, the blocs of BYUT and NU-NS) are very stable. There is small probability (in limits of the statistical errors) of not passing 3% threshold by the Communist Party (CPU) and more significant probability of passing 3% barrier by the Bloc of Lytvyn, which can be in the coalition either with the Party of Regions, or with the pro-presidential bloc of “Our Ukraine – People’s Self-Defence” (or NU-NS). Taking into account the latest sociological data, we can outline three most probable scenarios: “3”, Only three biggest political forces; “3+1”, The same “big three” plus the Communists (CPU); “3+2”, The biggest forces, the Communists plus the Bloc of Lytvyn. Outsider the Bloc of Lytvyn is the largest subversive factor of the elections. Namely because of it, there are could be some doubts of possibility of the coalition of the Party of Regions and the Communist Party, while Lytvyn’s passing increases chances of setting up the coalition without the Party of Regions. Actually, conditions for the coalition based on the Party of Regions and the pro-Presidential bloc NU-NS exist under any scenario. Not passing of the “middle weight” players may stimulate more suits brought after the elections. Certainly such suits will be supported by the outsiders (like Natalia Vitrenko’s Progressive Socialist Party) and, quite possible, by BYUT. Whatsoever, the president’s team most probably is getting ready for the worst outcome of the elections. Anyway, the new parliament will repeat main features of the last one, with most probably similar structure (however without the Socialists) and the same problems and conflicts. And the presidential team will try to widen his authorities and success of his taking part in the next Presidential elections (so his current “crisis manager” Victor Baloga is not going to become an MP). There are problems with accepting the elections results. Moreover, there is possibility for additional parliamentary re-elections. Finally, overall political situation may be worsening, especially with new protests of the political forces not satisfied with the elections results. And this political instability will bring many problems for business both in regional and nationwide scales.