2007

POLITICAL RESULTS OF 2007: TYMOSHENKO’S WINNING STRATEGY

The main political result of year 2007 in Ukraine is new political configuration, created by the parliamentary re-elections. President Yushchenko hoped that due to re-elections he would get rid of his political opponents in the former parliamentary coalition (the Party of Regions). Paradoxically, with the re-elections he empowered his rival, Yulia Tymoshenko, who wants to be elected as the next president. The real problem of Yushchenko is that Tymoshenko took voters from him and now takes his political supporters, even from pro-presidential faction ‘Our Ukraine – People’s Self-defence’. The president sees Mrs. Tymoshenko as the main danger for him and he is not against her failures in voting for her as the prime minister (despite he must officially propose her as a nominee for prime minister). The ideal solution for Yushchenko would be perhaps leaving the current government as just executing its duties and partly official – and also leaving weak parliamentary majority, unable to vote serious issues. In this case the president becomes the most official and heavy-weighted centre of the state power. Alas, such idyllic situation will not last forever. So the president understands it and prepares the new constitutional reform. However its implementation will require grouping anti-Tymoshenko allies and, most probably, other re-elections. Meantime, Yulia Tymoshenko understands well all difficulties, which can be prepared for her by rivals and opponents. So she keeps on with further realisation of her strategy of gaining more political weight, readdress is she in the government or in the opposition. As for now she enjoys wide voters’ support and support by many in the pro-presidential faction, who decided to become stakeholders of Tymoshenko’s presidential project. This support is so wide, that in the case of open conflict of Yushchenko with Tymoshenko, his faction would split. The main asset of Tymoshenko now is support of voters. However, that can prove to be unstable. As our research shows, most of new pro-Tymoshenko voters are not former voters of her political competitors, but usually passive citizens, which were persuaded by her. Tymoshenko is hardly certain she will be able to so many times, so she will avoid risks for her image. That is why she will try to remain a hardliner – and if conditions of her prime minister activities do not suit her, she will stay in the opposition. Just because her political stakes are too high – to be the president.