2008

FROM WAR AGAINST ALL TO EVERYONE’S COLLABORATION

Really working democratic political system is establishing in Ukraine today despite ideological disputes. This is yet the most important outcome of the parliamentary re-elections of 2007. The second result is increasingly strong positions of Yulia Tymoshenko and her political force, the BYUT bloc First 100 days of Yulia Tymoshenko’s government were successful for strengthening her image. Tymoshenko needs it because she wants to be elected as the next president. Therefore prime minister Tymoshenko compete with president Yushchenko, although avoiding direct personal critics. Today the Ukrainian political circles are talking about the “rating breakthrough” of Yulia Tymoshenko, who still has the first place amid presidential ratings and whose bloc is also the leader amid political forces. Main reason for that is transfer of voters of Yushchenko and NU-NS to Tymoshenko’s side. Thanks to her high ratings Tymoshenko has good chances to win. So many large political and business players are targeting to this potential winner of the next elections. The second long-term tendency is the fall of ratings of the Party of Regions and the third tendency is decrease of ratings of Victor Yushchenko and his party “Our Ukraine” (NU). Besides, Tymoshenko’s bloc BYUT is setting relationships with different forces out of the coalition. That can be the Party of Regions, which is also not interested in Yushchenko’s version of the new Constitution, but which can agree with BYUT to promote the two-party political system, or some smaller factions in the parliament (like the communists), or even parts of the pro-presidential political force (like Lutsenko’s group from the NU-NS faction). Another success of Tymoshenko is the re-elections in the capital Kyiv became a serious Tymoshenko and a failure of Victor Yushchenko, who now loses Kyiv and hence the administrative resource in the capital. Taking over the capital authorities is a key factor in the Tymoshenko’s fighting for the presidential post. To destroy Tymoshenko’s popularity there are some information wars against the BYUT and even more strategic plan of Yushchenko and Baloga with blocking amendments to the state budget, to cut sources for social payments of Tymoshenko’s government. But attempts to criticise Tymoshenko, her faction and government are usually unsuccessful. Finally, there are split in the pro-presidential bloc “NU-NS”, seen with formation of two new parties from it. Lutsenko’s “People Self-defence” may become a close ally of BYUT, while Baloga’s project “United Centre” is absolutely pro-presidential. To conclude, most of Ukrainian political forces prefer to arrange agreements, not battles. At the same time such agreements are completely tactical, while in fact there are preparations of strategic advances to battlefields. Goals of three leading political forces in such process are different. Mrs. Tymoshenko wants to win the presidential chair; Mr. Yushchenko is going to save it for the next term; the regionalist leaders dream to return to the state power.