2008

ALL ROUTES LEAD TO POLITICAL CRISIS

Yulia Tymoshenko faces fall in her ratings. Main reasons are economic problems, first of all high inflation. She understands that her chances to become the head of the state get lower. This rating problem stimulates her to play for the prescheduled elections and changes in the Constitution. So Tymoshenko publicly announced her desire of Ukraine’s transition from presidential to parliamentary republic. Besides Tymoshenko’s bloc BYUT wants to see the opposition Party of Regions as an ally in creation of two-party political system. Today Tymoshenko’s positions get worse. Her plans of leaving the prime minister position before big economic troubles, plans of alliance with the regionalists and hence implementation of constitutional amendments is unsuccessful. Also she failed to make fast privatisation of large plants to obtain money necessary for her populist but large social payments. Her next defeat may be expected after the local elections in the capital, where political leaders are political forces competing with her BYUT bloc. Meanwhile president Victor Yushchenko lost chances to implement his project of his own constitutional amendments due to decision of the Constitutional Court, which accept any referendum based amendments only after the parliament allows it. Local tactical victory of the president is approval of new law on the Cabinet of Ministers, which diminishes authority level of prime minister Tymoshenko. The president also needs the Party of Regions as an ally, in order to defend form political projects of Tymoshenko to take over the state power. Now it seems that the Party of Regions is more targeted to set up closer relations with the president, who is considered as both weaker and more reliable partner. Moreover, Rinat Akhmetov, one of key sponsors of the party, formalises very good relations with the president. Inside the party its leader Victor Yanukovich improved his positions with better control over the party and diversification of its sponsors.