2008

COLD WAR IN UKRAINIAN POLITICS BECAME HOT

New parliamentary session was marked with the creation of anti-president alliance of two largest political forces, which can provide the constitutional parliamentary majority, Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko (BYUT) and the Party of Regions. The voting results in early September showed serious anti-president agreements between Yulia Tymoshenko (leader of BYUT ) and Victor Yanukovich (leader of the Party of Regions). Moreover, these voting outcomes were often supported with the Communist Party and even some members of the “Our Ukraine – People’s Self-defence” (or NU-NS, formally pro-pesidential). As a result of anti-president voting, most of NU-NS decided that this faction went out of the majority coalition. So existence of the formal parliamentary coalition of BYUT and NU-NS was finally ended. It means direct changes in Ukraine’s politics, either forming a new coalition, or arranging new elections. Meanwhile new quasi-majority cleaned up legal way to presidential impeachment. Also, in order to decrease the presidential power, it took away president’s control over the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), transferring the secret service to control of the parliament, as well as weakened presidential control over the Prosecutor General. Adopted by the quasi-majority amendments to the law on the Cabinet of Ministers also decreased the presidential rule. Surely all these legislative changes are or will be vetoed by the president, but the quasi-majority will do its best to overcome vetoes, although this will escalate political confrontation. This quasi-coalition creates many risks for the country. The main one is the de facto two-party system to division of the power and property, without any counterweights able to balance it. In addition to formalisation of this quasi-majority, there are other scenarios. The most probable alternative scenario is the prescheduled parliamentary elections. This idea is supported by the presidential office and can also be finally accepted by BYUT and the Party of Regions, providing they will see it as not too risky. In any case, Ukraine now faces possible economic troubles, including hyperinflation, financial capitals outflow and lower investment activities in many sectors, worsening conjuncture for foreign trade, and problems with state budgeting. Political instability will not help solve those problems soon…