2009

THE POLITICAL DEADLOCK

Political conflicts in Ukraine make economic recession real disaster. Such conflicts show tendency of intensifying. Finally, on these days the campaign for the presidential elections de facto started. Whatever political force becomes a temporary winner, situation in the economy, especially with public finances and unemployment, becomes worse every day. As a result, whole year 2009 will be the year of the deep economic and political crisis for Ukraine. All such conflicts go on the background of complete ignoring of interests of business community and common people. As a result, business moves to the shadow sector, while distrust to politicians grows among voters. The key conflict is that between the president and prime minister. The president does everything possible to dismiss the prime minister and to worsen economic positions of the government, even if this hurts the national economy in whole. In her turn, the prime minister managed to set earlier date for presidential elections. At the same time, massive changes for positions in the state bodies have not happened yet, as many expected after dismissal of the minister of foreign affairs. The main opposition force, the Party of Regions managed to settle out internal conflicts between groups which were loyal to Tymoshenko and to Yushchenko. Today the party plays double game, supporting beneficial for it proposition from sides of both the president and prime ministers. The political players of the second range play auxiliary, but also important roles. For instance, only thanks to the communists the formal parliamentary coalition can be considered as working. Meantime, promotion of Arseniy Yatsenyuk as an apparent successor to Victor Yushchenko goes on, although without enthusiasm: local elections in Ternopil did not become political start for his bloc. Main outcome of current political crisis is that recovery of economy will be delayed for at least additional a half a year, regardless possible improvements in the world economy. So no serious economy revival will be till the second half of 2010.