2009

More Chances for Outsiders, Less for ‘Oligarchic Capitalism’

The presidential election campaign has started. The second round and suing will delay changes in the state power for at least several months. So the new political realty regardless, who is the new president, will happen in late spring up to autumn 2010, or later.

Despite the leading position in polls, Yanukovych has potentially less chances that his opponents, most of all since his electoral reserves are exhausted. However, probability of Yanukovych as the president in 2010 also exists, in the case of combination of higher activity of his voters and less internal flows among voters of his opponents. But his opponents (Tymoshenko or Yatsenyuk) indeed have high chances to win.

Whoever is the new president (except Yulia Tymoshenko), he will insist on pre-scheduled parliamentary elections. That brings more chances for new outsiders, like Sergiy Tigipko, or old ones, like the acting president Victor Yushchenko to come back to big politics via the parliament.

In fact support of the leading nominees by the outsiders during the second round may be decisive for this country destiny since that will strengthen leaders whose ratings will be balance near similar values.

Political uncertainty stimulates key sponsors to diversify their political investments. That decreases level of political struggle and gives more chances to outsiders.

Finally, not reaching a ‘Big Agreement’ between the Party of Regions and the BYUT helped avoid fast transferring Ukraine to the final stage of the ‘oligarchic capitalism’ and luckily leaves more chances (although still low) for reaching more democracy. Appearing more outsiders and secondary leaders, their participation in presidential elections and in apparent parliamentary elections increases such democratic chances.